Path Analysis of Adverse Childhood Experiences, Early Marriage, Early Pregnancy, and Exposure to Intimate Partner Violence Among Young Women in Honduras.

Purpose: The pathways by which adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are associated with early marriage and early pregnancy are poorly understood. Early marriage and early pregnancy may be risk factors for adulthood intimate partner violence (IPV). The aim of this study was to assess the relationships among ACEs, early marriage, early pregnancy, and IPV among women in Honduras. Method: We used weighted data from 1,436 women aged 18-24 years from the nationally representative 2017 Honduras Violence Against Children and Youth Survey. We used path analysis to estimate relationships and accounted for sample design, non-response, and within-country clustering. Results: We found that ACEs had differential relationships with outcomes of interest. For example, witnessing violence in the community was directly associated with increased probability of early pregnancy (10 percentage points (PP); 95% CI: 0.04, 0.15) and IPV (6 PP; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.10), while emotional violence was not directly or indirectly associated with any outcome. Early marriage and early pregnancy had no direct or indirect effect on IPV, but the total effect of early marriage on IPV was significant. Conclusions: Understanding the relationship between ACEs, early marriage, early pregnancy, and IPV may help inform prevention efforts. For example, programs aiming to reduce early pregnancy may consider addressing sexual violence experienced in childhood.

Excess Child Mortality Associated With Colombia's Armed Conflict, 1998-2019.

Importance: Armed conflicts are directly and indirectly associated with morbidity and mortality due to destruction of health infrastructure and diversion of resources, forced displacement, environmental damage, and erosion of social and economic security. Colombia's conflict began in the 1940s and has been uniquely long-lasting and geographically dynamic. Objective: To estimate the proportion of infant and child mortality associated with armed conflict exposure from 1998 to 2019 in Colombia. Design, Setting, and Participants: This ecological cohort study includes data from all 1122 municipalities in Colombia from 1998 to 2019. Statistical analysis was conducted from February 2022 to June 2023. Exposure: Armed conflict exposure was measured dichotomously by the occurrence of conflict-related events in each municipality-year, enumerated and reported by the Colombian National Center for Historic Memory. Main Outcomes and Measures: Deaths among children younger than 5 years and deaths among infants younger than 1 year, offset by the number of births in that municipality-year, enumerated by Colombia's national vital statistics. Results: The analytical sample included 24 157 municipality-years and 223 101 conflict events covering the period from 1998 to 2019. Overall, the presence of armed conflict in a municipality was associated with a 52% increased risk of death for children younger than 5 years of age (relative risk, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.34-1.72]), with similar results for 1- and 5-year lagged analyses. Armed conflict was associated with a 61% increased risk in infant (aged <1 year) death (relative risk, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.43-1.82]). On the absolute scale, this translates to a risk difference of 3.7 excess child deaths per 1000 births (95% CI, 2.7-4.7 per 1000 births) and 3.0 excess infant deaths per 1000 births (95% CI, 2.3-3.6 per 1000 births) per year, beyond what would be expected in the absence of armed conflict. Across the 22-year study period, the population attributable risk was 31.7% (95% CI, 23.5%-39.1%) for child deaths and 35.3% (95% CI, 27.8%-42.0%) for infant deaths. Conclusions and Relevance: This ecological cohort study of Colombia's spatiotemporally dynamic armed conflict suggests that municipal exposure to armed conflict was associated with excess child and infant deaths. With a record number of children living near active conflict zones in 2020, policy makers and health professionals should understand the magnitude of and manner in which armed conflicts directly and indirectly undermine child health.

The association between youth violence and mental health outcomes in Colombia: A cross sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND: Violence against children and youth poses public health risks regarding mental health symptoms and substance use. Less studied is the relationship between violence and mental health/substance abuse in the Latin American context. This study explored sex-stratified relationships between violence and mental health/substance use among Colombian youth. METHODS: We analyzed the 2018 Colombian Violence Against Children and Youth Survey, which collected cross-sectional data from Colombian youth (13-24 years) (n = 2705). Exposure variables were (i) binary sexual, emotional, and physical victimization and (ii) poly-victimization. The outcomes were binary suicidal thoughts, self-harm, past-month psychological distress, binge drinking, smoking, and drug use. Sex-stratified, logistic regressions were adjusted for age, primary school, parental presence, relationship status, and witnessing community violence. RESULTS: For females, (i) emotional violence (compared to being unexposed) was associated with greater odds of suicidal thoughts, self-harm, and psychological distress and (ii) sexual violence was associated with suicidal thoughts and self-harm. For males, (i) emotional violence (compared to being unexposed) was associated with greater odds of suicidal thoughts and psychological distress, but not self-harm and (ii) sexual violence exposure was associated with suicidal thoughts and self-harm. Physical violence was generally not associated with internalized mental health outcomes for females/males, when emotional and sexual violence were held constant. Poly-victimization was consistently and positively associated with internalized mental health symptoms among females, and to a lesser degree for males. Substance use outcomes for males or females were not associated with violence. CONCLUSIONS: Findings highlight the internalized mental health burden of emotional and sexual violence.

Associations between conflict violence, community violence, and household violence exposures among females in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to protracted public violence is increasingly referenced as a risk factor for domestic violence, but limited quantitative evidence has demonstrated this association to date. This study analyzes associations in Colombia between lifetime experiences of external violence, including the Colombia civil conflict and community interpersonal violence, and experiences of household violence, including intimate partner and caregiver violence. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We use the 2018 Colombia Violence Against Children and Youth Survey, employing multi-variable logistic regressions to determine the association between exposure to external violence and household violence victimization for females aged 13-24 (n = 1406). Adjusted models controlled for age, ever married, currently in school, and past 12-mo work experience and standard errors were adjusted to account for the multi-stage sampling design. Females who had ever witnessed community violence (39.23 %) faced increased risks of experiencing both physical violence (aOR = 2.81; 95 % CIs: 1.54-5.14; p < 0.001) and emotional violence (aOR: 2.48; 95 % CIs: 1.29-4.75; p < 0.01) from caregivers. Females who had ever witnessed internal conflict (15.99 %) had a greater likelihood of experiencing emotional violence from caregivers (aOR: 5.24; 95 % CIs: 1.86-14.76; p < 0.01) as well as physical violence perpetrated by intimate partners (aOR: 3.31; 95 % CIs: 1.22-8.95; p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the connection between exposure to community violence and internal conflict and household violence victimization among adolescent and young adult females in Colombia. Findings build the evidence base for more holistic and coordinated policy and programming efforts and foreground the need to identify and support vulnerable populations across socioecological domains in contexts of chronic violence.

Adverse Childhood Experiences During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Associations with Poor Mental Health and Suicidal Behaviors Among High School Students - Adolescent Behaviors and Experiences Survey, United States, January-June 2021.

Social and educational disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic have exacerbated concerns about adolescents' mental health and suicidal behavior. Data from the 2021 Adolescent Behaviors and Experiences Survey (ABES) indicate that 37.1% of U.S. high school students reported poor mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic, with 19.9% considering and 9.0% attempting suicide in the preceding year (1). Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs)* are associated with poor mental health and suicidal behaviors (2,3), and high prevalence of some ACEs have been documented during the pandemic (4). ACEs are preventable, potentially traumatic events that occur in childhood (ages 0-17 years) such as neglect, experiencing or witnessing violence, or having a family member attempt or die by suicide. Also included are aspects of a child's environment that can undermine their sense of safety, stability, and bonding. Associations between ACEs occurring during the pandemic and mental health or suicidal behaviors among U.S. high school students were examined using ABES data. Experience of one to two ACEs was associated with poorer mental health and increased suicidal behaviors, and these deleterious outcomes increased with additional ACE exposure. After adjusting for demographic characteristics, adolescents who reported four or more ACEs during the pandemic had a prevalence of poor current mental health four times as high as, and a prevalence of past-year suicide attempts 25 times as high as, those without ACEs during the pandemic. Experience of specific ACE types (e.g., emotional abuse) was associated with higher prevalences of poor mental health and suicidal behaviors. Prevention and intervention strategies (5), including early identification and trauma-informed mental health service and support provision, for ACEs and their acute and long-term impacts could help address the U.S. child and adolescent mental health and suicide crisis.†.

Violence Exposure Among Adolescent Boys and Young Men in Colombia With a Lifetime History of Transactional Sex.

PURPOSE: There is a paucity of research examining the contextual factors that shape the violence experienced by those engaged in transactional sex, particularly among adolescent boys and young men. Recognizing the acute vulnerability among youth engaged in transactional sex, this analysis examined the associations between lifetime transactional sex and experience of violence among 13- to 24-year-old males. METHODS: Using data from two strata of the 2018 Violence Against Children and Youth Survey from Colombia, logistic regressions were used to estimate the association between engagement in transactional sex and violence exposure. Three groups of violence outcomes were examined: violence victimization, violence perpetration, and witnessing violence. RESULTS: Violence victimization and witnessing violence were widespread. Adolescent boys and young men with a lifetime history of transactional sex were significantly more likely to experience violence victimization than those without a lifetime history of transactional sex, particularly intimate partner violence (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 5.23 and 5.41) and caregiver emotional violence (aOR: 7.23 and 8.74). In the national and priority samples respectively, those with a lifetime history of transactional sex were also significantly more likely to witness violence within the home (aOR: 4.42 and 4.99) and outside of the home (aOR: 7.24 and 28.32). DISCUSSION: Although research is needed to determine causal pathways, our findings highlight the ubiquity of violence and the criticality of supporting this group of adolescent boys and young men. Interventions for those with a history of transactional sex should address factors that may contribute to drivers of violence and transactional sex.

Orphanhood and Caregiver Loss Among Children Based on New Global Excess COVID-19 Death Estimates.

This study assesses estimates of new orphanhood based on excess deaths to provide a comprehensive measure of the COVID-19 pandemic's long-term impact on orphanhood and caregiver loss.

Association between violence and mental distress, self-harm and suicidal ideation and attempts among young people in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Mental health problems ranging from depression to more severe acts such as self-harm or suicidal behaviours are a serious problem among adolescents and young adults. Exposure to violence during the life of young people can increase mental health issues for youth. This study examines the relationship between exposure to violence and mental health issues among youth using a nationally representative study in Malawi. METHODS: We analysed data from the nationally representative Violence Against Children Survey from Malawi (2013) to quantify the association between exposures to violence (physical, sexual and emotional) and their relationship with mental distress, self-harm behaviours and suicidal ideation and attempts among youth aged 13-24 years. We evaluated the association of exposures to violence against children with reported mental health conditions among women and men. We used ordinal logistic regression models with appropriate survey weights to assess exposures to violence and the three outcomes of interest. RESULTS: Children and youth aged 13-24 years exposed to violence in childhood reported higher levels of adverse mental health effects, including mental distress, self-harm behaviours and suicidal ideation and attempts. The odds of reporting these outcomes increased as the number of violence types increased. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the risks based on different combinations of exposures to violence in Malawi can help identify populations at higher risk and optimise violence prevention strategies.

Experiences of participation in a population-based survey on violence: Emotional discomfort, disclosure concerns, and the perceived value of participation among adolescents and young adults.

The accurate measurement of violence depends on high-quality data collected using methods that ensure participant confidentiality, privacy, and safety. To assess survey participants' emotional distress, discomfort, and self-perceived value of participating in the Honduras (2017), El Salvador (2017), Cote d'Ivoire (2018), and Lesotho (2018) Violence Against Children and Youth Surveys, which include sensitive topics such as sexual, physical, and emotional violence, we investigated individual self-reported distress and perceived value of participation by age, sex, and other demographic factors. We also examined the associations between past experiences of violence and both self-reported distress and perceived value of survey participation. Few individuals reported distress or concerns about disclosure. Across countries, 82.9% (Cote d'Ivoire) to 96.1% (Honduras) of participants indicated they were not afraid that someone might overhear their answers, 82.5% (Cote d'Ivoire) to 98.0% (El Salvador) said participation was not upsetting or stressful, and 93.3% (Cote d'Ivoire) to 98.6% (Honduras) said participation was worthwhile. The value of these interviews may exceed the negative feelings that some questions potentially elicit and can contribute to improved responses to victims.

Global, regional, and national minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, by age and family circumstance up to Oct 31, 2021: an updated modelling study.

BACKGROUND: In the 6 months following our estimates from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, the proliferation of new coronavirus variants, updated mortality data, and disparities in vaccine access increased the amount of children experiencing COVID-19-associated orphanhood. To inform responses, we aimed to model the increases in numbers of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, as well as the cumulative orphanhood age-group distribution and circumstance (maternal or paternal orphanhood). METHODS: We used updated excess mortality and fertility data to model increases in minimum estimates of COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver deaths from our original study period of March 1, 2020-April 30, 2021, to include the new period of May 1-Oct 31, 2021, for 21 countries. Orphanhood was defined as the death of one or both parents; primary caregiver loss included parental death or the death of one or both custodial grandparents; and secondary caregiver loss included co-residing grandparents or kin. We used logistic regression and further incorporated a fixed effect for western European countries into our previous model to avoid over-predicting caregiver loss in that region. For the entire 20-month period, we grouped children by age (0-4 years, 5-9 years, and 10-17 years) and maternal or paternal orphanhood, using fertility contributions, and we modelled global and regional extrapolations of numbers of orphans. 95% credible intervals (CrIs) are given for all estimates. FINDINGS: The number of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death is estimated to have increased by 90·0% (95% CrI 89·7-90·4) from April 30 to Oct 31, 2021, from 2 737 300 (95% CrI 1 976 100-2 987 000) to 5 200 300 (3 619 400-5 731 400). Between March 1, 2020, and Oct 31, 2021, 491 300 (95% CrI 485 100-497 900) children aged 0-4 years, 736 800 (726 900-746 500) children aged 5-9 years, and 2 146 700 (2 120 900-2 174 200) children aged 10-17 years are estimated to have experienced COVID-19-associated orphanhood. Globally, 76·5% (95% CrI 76·3-76·7) of children were paternal orphans, whereas 23·5% (23·3-23·7) were maternal orphans. In each age group and region, the prevalence of paternal orphanhood exceeded that of maternal orphanhood. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show that numbers of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death almost doubled in 6 months compared with the amount after the first 14 months of the pandemic. Over the entire 20-month period, 5·0 million COVID-19 deaths meant that 5·2 million children lost a parent or caregiver. Our data on children's ages and circumstances should support pandemic response planning for children globally. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation (Global Challenges Research Fund, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, and Medical Research Council), Oak Foundation, UK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health, and Imperial College London.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Intimate Partner Violence Advocates and Agencies.

Relatively few studies have considered the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on intimate partner violence (IPV) advocates or the agencies where they work. In this study, based on United States IPV advocates' experiences working with survivors during the COVID-19 pandemic, we conducted interviews to explore: 1) personal challenges and resilience working as IPV advocates during the COVID-19 pandemic; 2) how agencies adapted to the pandemic to support IPV survivors and advocates; and 3) specific needs and challenges of culturally-specific agencies. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 53 IPV advocates from June to November 2020. Participants were included if they worked directly with survivors, identified as an IPV advocate, worked at a US-based agency, and spoke and understood English. We created a sampling matrix to ensure adequate representation from IPV advocates serving survivors from communities which have been marginalized. Interviews were conducted through a virtual platform by a trained member of the research team. We used an inductive thematic analysis approach, with weekly coding meetings to resolve discrepancies in coding. Five themes emerged from the data: 1) IPV advocates described how working as an IPV advocate during the COVID-19 pandemic impacted them personally; 2) agencies developed new methods of addressing IPV advocates' needs; 3) agencies developed new solutions to address pandemic-related client needs; 4) transitioning advocacy work to virtual formats created challenges but also opportunities and; 5) pandemic limitations and impacts compounded pre-pandemic challenges for culturally specific agencies. IPV advocates are frontline workers who have played essential roles in adjusting services to meet survivor needs during the COVID-19 pandemic while simultaneously coping with pandemic impacts on themselves and their agencies. Developing inter-agency collaborations and promoting advocates' safety and wellbeing during future public health crises will help support IPV survivors.

Associations between adverse childhood experiences and contraceptive use among young adults in Honduras.

OBJECTIVE: Research on adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and use of modern contraception is limited in Honduras. The government has made substantial gains in promoting modern contraception. Young adults experience high rates of violence. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between ACEs and contraceptive behaviors among young women and men. METHODS: We used data from 810 women and 753 men aged 18-24 years from the 2017 Honduras Violence against Children Survey, a cross-sectional, nationally representative household survey of childhood adversity. We assessed associations between ACEs and three contraceptive use outcomes: use versus nonuse of modern contraceptives; use of methods requiring medium/high or low programmatic support among current contraceptive users; and frequent versus infrequent condom use. FINDINGS: Exposure to physical or emotional abuse and witnessing violence in the home was not significantly associated with the three contraceptive use outcomes for men or women. Sexual abuse and parental separation reduced odds of contraceptive use among women (Odds Ratio (OR) < 0.60) but not among men. In contrast, orphan status increased odds of modern contraception use among men (OR 1.93) and frequent condom use among women (OR 2.22). CONCLUSION: The inconsistent direction and magnitude of associations between ACEs and modern contraceptive use among young men and women suggests divergent relationships between ACEs and sexual and reproductive health behaviors. Results may highlight the strength of norms around contraceptive use and/or widespread access to community-based family planning programs and comprehensive sexuality education, irrespective of exposure to ACEs in Honduras.

Love in the Time of War: Identifying Neighborhood-level Predictors of Intimate Partner Violence from a Longitudinal Study in Refugee-hosting Communities.

A high prevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV) has been documented among women living in conflict-affected and refugee-hosting areas, but why this occurs is not well understood. Conflict and displacement deteriorate communities' social cohesion and community connectedness; these neighborhood social environments may influence individual IPV outcomes. We explored neighborhood-level social disorganization and cohesion as predictors of recent IPV in refugee-hosting communities in northern Ecuador by conducting multi-level logistic regression on a longitudinal sample of 1,312 women. Neighborhood social disorganization was marginally positively associated with emotional IPV (AOR: 1.17, 95% CI: .99, 1.38) and physical and/or sexual IPV (AOR: 1.20, 95% CI: .96, 1.51). This was partially mediated by neighborhood-level civic engagement in the case of emotional IPV. At the household level, perceived discrimination and experience of psychosocial stressors were risk factors for both types of IPV, whereas social support was protective. To our knowledge, this is one of the first studies to examine how neighborhood social factors influence IPV outcomes in refugee-hosting communities or in South America. As the world grapples with the largest number of displaced people in history, this research can inform prevention and response programming and reinforces the critical importance of promoting acceptance of refugees and immigrants and positively engaging all community members in civic life in refugee-hosting settings.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Needs and Lived Experiences of Intimate Partner Violence Survivors in the United States: Advocate Perspectives.

We explored the challenges and lived experiences of intimate partner violence (IPV) survivors during the COVID-19 pandemic by interviewing 53 U.S.-based IPV advocates between June and November 2020. Advocates described how the COVID-19 pandemic limited survivors' abilities to meet their basic needs. The pandemic was also described as being used by abusive partners to perpetrate control and has created unique safety and harm reduction challenges. IPV survivors experienced compounding challenges due to structural inequities. IPV must be considered by local, state, and federal governments when developing disaster planning policies and practices, including in the context of pandemics.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on child protective services caseworkers and administrators.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted children and young people experiencing child abuse and neglect. Child Protective Services (CPS) has played an important role in supporting children and families during the COVID-19 pandemic. Few studies to-date have evaluated the impact of the pandemic on CPS caseworkers and administrators in the United States. OBJECTIVES: We conducted interviews to explore CPS caseworkers' and administrators' experiences working and serving families during the pandemic. METHODS: Participants were U.S.-based CPS caseworkers and administrators. We conducted semi-structured virtual interviews with participants and used an inductive thematic analysis approach. RESULTS: We conducted 37 interviews. Participants discussed how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way they conduct investigations and provide services to families in the CPS system. Several services were adapted to occur virtually, providing challenges and unique opportunities. Participants also described the personal barriers they faced during the pandemic, including working remotely, experiencing burnout, and challenges obtaining personal protective equipment. Finally, participants shared creative solutions they engaged in to support children and families during the COVID-19 pandemic, including expanding collaborations with other community-based organizations. DISCUSSION: This study suggests the important role that CPS has played during the pandemic and challenges individual CPS workers felt, in terms of both experiencing burnout and difficulty obtaining personalized protective equipment. Inclusion of the CPS system in emergency preparedness planning for future pandemics or natural disasters will ensure continuation of these vital services.

Predicting adolescent boys' and young men's perpetration of youth violence in Colombia.

Youth violence poses a substantive public health burden in Latin America, particularly among adolescent boys and young men. Understanding predictors of youth violence perpetration among boys and young men is critical to more effectively target and tailor prevention programs, especially in Colombia, which has endured decades-long internal armed conflict. This study uses Colombia's nationally representative 2018 Violence Against Children and Youth Survey data to examine risk and protective factors associated with violence perpetration among 13- to 24-year-old male. Amongst adolescent boys and young men in Colombia, the prevalence of ever perpetrating violence against someone other than an intimate partner was approximately 23%. Multivariable logistic regression models revealed that physical violence victimization by peers, emotional violence victimization by caregivers, having lost or been separated from a mother during childhood, and witnessing community violence were all associated with lifetime perpetration of youth violence. Programs targeting reduction of youth violence among boys might consider addressing the previously identified predictors earlier in the life course and at the individual, family and community levels.

Self-harming behavior in relation to exposure to inter-personal violence among youth and young adults in Colombia.

The effects of violence exposure on the risk of self-harming behaviors of youth in low- and middle-income countries is not well-understood. Using household survey data from one nationally representative sample and one sample from conflict-affected areas, we examined violence exposure and self-harm among Colombian youth aged 13-24. Survey-weighted prevalence ratios comparing self-harming behaviors by exposure to violence were estimated with Poisson log-linear models, controlling for age, sex, education and food insecurity. Compared to unexposed youth, those exposed to violence in both home and community settings were 7.97 (95% confidence interval [CI]:2.72-23.36) times more likely in the conflict-affected sample, and 21.05 (95% CI: 8.80-50.34) times more likely in the national sample to report having attempted suicide. Among Colombian youth, exposure to violence as either witness or victim was associated with greater prevalence of self-harming behaviors. Youth suicide prevention programs can address exposures to violence as a risk factor for self-harm.

COVID-19-Associated Orphanhood and Caregiver Death in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Most coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths occur among adults, not children, and attention has focused on mitigating COVID-19 burden among adults. However, a tragic consequence of adult deaths is that high numbers of children might lose their parents and caregivers to COVID-19-associated deaths. METHODS: We quantified COVID-19-associated caregiver loss and orphanhood in the United States and for each state using fertility and excess and COVID-19 mortality data. We assessed burden and rates of COVID-19-associated orphanhood and deaths of custodial and coresiding grandparents, overall and by race and ethnicity. We further examined variations in COVID-19-associated orphanhood by race and ethnicity for each state. RESULTS: We found that from April 1, 2020, through June 30, 2021, >140 000 children in the United States experienced the death of a parent or grandparent caregiver. The risk of such loss was 1.1 to 4.5 times higher among children of racial and ethnic minority groups compared with non-Hispanic White children. The highest burden of COVID-19-associated death of parents and caregivers occurred in Southern border states for Hispanic children, in Southeastern states for Black children, and in states with tribal areas for American Indian and/or Alaska Native populations. CONCLUSIONS: We found substantial disparities in distributions of COVID-19-associated death of parents and caregivers across racial and ethnic groups. Children losing caregivers to COVID-19 need care and safe, stable, and nurturing families with economic support, quality child care, and evidence-based parenting support programs. There is an urgent need to mount an evidence-based comprehensive response focused on those children at greatest risk in the states most affected.

Global minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and deaths of caregivers: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic priorities have focused on prevention, detection, and response. Beyond morbidity and mortality, pandemics carry secondary impacts, such as children orphaned or bereft of their caregivers. Such children often face adverse consequences, including poverty, abuse, and institutionalisation. We provide estimates for the magnitude of this problem resulting from COVID-19 and describe the need for resource allocation. METHODS: We used mortality and fertility data to model minimum estimates and rates of COVID-19-associated deaths of primary or secondary caregivers for children younger than 18 years in 21 countries. We considered parents and custodial grandparents as primary caregivers, and co-residing grandparents or older kin (aged 60-84 years) as secondary caregivers. To avoid overcounting, we adjusted for possible clustering of deaths using an estimated secondary attack rate and age-specific infection-fatality ratios for SARS-CoV-2. We used these estimates to model global extrapolations for the number of children who have experienced COVID-19-associated deaths of primary and secondary caregivers. FINDINGS: Globally, from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, we estimate 1 134 000 children (95% credible interval 884 000-1 185 000) experienced the death of primary caregivers, including at least one parent or custodial grandparent. 1 562 000 children (1 299 000-1 683 000) experienced the death of at least one primary or secondary caregiver. Countries in our study set with primary caregiver death rates of at least one per 1000 children included Peru (10·2 per 1000 children), South Africa (5·1), Mexico (3·5), Brazil (2·4), Colombia (2·3), Iran (1·7), the USA (1·5), Argentina (1·1), and Russia (1·0). Numbers of children orphaned exceeded numbers of deaths among those aged 15-50 years. Between two and five times more children had deceased fathers than deceased mothers. INTERPRETATION: Orphanhood and caregiver deaths are a hidden pandemic resulting from COVID-19-associated deaths. Accelerating equitable vaccine delivery is key to prevention. Psychosocial and economic support can help families to nurture children bereft of caregivers and help to ensure that institutionalisation is avoided. These data show the need for an additional pillar of our response: prevent, detect, respond, and care for children. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation (Global Challenges Research Fund, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Medical Research Council), UK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health, and Imperial College London.